Asset manager Bitwise sees 3 tests for crypto’s 2026 rally

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Asset manager Bitwise sees 3 tests for crypto’s 2026 rally Bitcoin and ether are off to a strong start this year, and Bitwise says the path to new highs hinges on market stability, U.S. legislation and calm equities. By Will Canny , AI Boost | Edited by Nikhilesh De Jan 6, 2026, 8:29 p.m. Make us preferred on Google Asset manager Bitwise sees three tests for crypto’s 2026 rally. (Unsplash, modified by CoinDesk) What to know : Bitwise said the risk of forced liquidations from last year’s selloff has largely faded. Progress on U.S. crypto market structure legislation remains the biggest open question. A sharp equity-market downturn could still derail crypto’s momentum, the report warned. The crypto market has started 2026 on a solid footing, but the question now is whether the rally can last, crypto asset management firm Bitwise said in a blog post Tuesday. Bitcoin BTC $ 92,456.24 and ether ETH $ 3,238.70 are both up about 7% year-to-date, six days into 2026, with speculative tokens posting even larger gains. DOGE $ 0.1467 alone is up roughly 29%, a sign that risk appetite has returned to parts of the market. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said there are three key conditions that need to hold for crypto to push toward new all-time highs this year, and one of them may already be in the rearview mirror. Hougan pointed to the absence of another major market shock like the Oct. 10, 2025 liquidation event , when roughly $19 billion in crypto futures positions were wiped out in a single day. In the months that followed, investors worried that large market makers or hedge funds might be forced to unwind positions, creating persistent selling pressure. Hougan said those fears appear to have eased, noting that any major wind-downs likely would have happened by year-end. The market’s early-2026 strength suggests investors have moved past that overhang. The next test, Hougan says, is Washington. The proposed U.S. crypto market structure legislation is moving through Congress, with a Senate Banking Committee markup targeted for mid-January,though this date needs to be confirmed, and is just one part of the legislative process that needs to happen. While disagreements remain around decentralized finance (DeFi) regulation, stablecoin rewards and political conflicts, Hougan argued that passage of the bill would be a critical milestone. Without legislation, today’s relatively pro-crypto regulatory stance could be reversed by a future administration. Bitwise characterized the outlook here as cautiously optimistic but unresolved. Finally, Hougan said crypto needs a reasonably stable equity market backdrop. While digital assets are not tightly correlated with stocks, a sharp selloff, of the order of a 20% decline in the S&P 500 index, would likely weigh on all risk assets in the short term. Prediction markets currently imply low odds of a recession this year and strong chances of equity gains, but this remains an external risk. Overall, the setup for crypto remains constructive, with growing institutional adoption, rising use of stablecoins and tokenization, and the lagged benefits of a more supportive regulatory environment that began in early 2025, the blog post said. If policy progress continues and broader markets cooperate, Bitwise believes crypto’s early momentum in 2026 could prove durable. Read more: Grayscale sees regulation, not quantum fears, shaping crypto markets in 2026 Bitcoin News Ether Bitwise Asset Management Analysts AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards . For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy . More For You KuCoin Hits Record Market Share as 2025 Volumes Outpace Crypto Market By CoinDesk Research Dec 22, 2025 Commissioned by KuCoin KuCoin captured a record share of centralised exchange volume in 2025, with more than $1.25tn traded as its volumes grew faster than the wider crypto market. What to know : KuCoin recorded over $1.25 trillion in total trading volume in 2025 , equivalent to an average of roughly $114 billion per month , marking its strongest year on record. This performance translated into an all-time high share of centralised exchange volume , as KuCoin’s activity expanded faster than aggregate CEX volumes , which slowed during periods of lower market volatility. Spot and derivatives volumes were evenly split , each exceeding $500 billion for the year, signalling broad-based usage rather than reliance on a single product line. Altcoins accounted for the majority of trading activity , reinforcing KuCoin’s role as a primary liquidity venue beyond BTC and ETH at a time when majors saw more muted turnover. Even as overall crypto volumes softened mid-year, KuCoin maintained elevated baseline activity , indicating structurally higher user engagement rather than short-lived volume spikes. View Full Report More For You Polkadot's DOT declines in U.S. afternoon selloff By Will Canny , CD Analytics | Edited by Stephen Alpher 2 hours ago The technical breakdown erased earlier gains as DOT plunged through $2.19 support on heavy volume. What to know : DOT slipped from $2.18 to $2.12 over the past hour, erasing earlier gains. Volume was 17% above the 30-day average during the failed breakout attempt. 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