Bitcoin Officially Breaks Its Four-Year Market Cycle

Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available. Read U.TODAY on Google News Diminishing returns More broken stats Advertisement Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, has recorded its very first red candle after the halving year in history. BREAKING: #BITCOIN JUST RECORDED ITS 1st RED CANDLE AFTER A HALVING IN HISTORY 4-YEAR CYCLE BROKEN. BUCKLE UP 🚀 pic.twitter.com/W8AmLQFfuu — The Bitcoin Historian (@pete_rizzo_) January 1, 2026 This means that Bitcoin's four-year cycle is pretty much over since there was no post-halving supply shock. HOT Stories Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2026 Ripple Kicks Off 2026 with 1 Billion XRP Unlock Crypto Market Prediction: Two Big Bitcoin (BTC) Barriers, Best XRP Price Timeframe at the Start of 2026, Shiba Inu (SHIB) Having a Calm New Year Top Crypto News of 2025: XRP's ATH, $19 Billion Wipeout, CZ's Pardon and More The "four-year cycle" theory relied on the post-halving year being the most explosive period of growth. Advertisement Bitcoin used to experience enormous rallies during post-halving rallies (2013, 2017, and 2021). The supply shock of the halving forced price appreciation within 12–18 months. Diminishing returns The chart shows a clear trend of "diminishing returns". Each subsequent green candle is smaller than the last. Due to the introduction of ETFs and institutional capital, Bitcoin has become a "macro asset" with lower volatility. It is no longer being viewed as a high-growth speculative bet. Advertisement The "broken" cycle in 2025 was essentially foretold in early 2024. This cycle was historically unique because the flagship cryptocurrency broke its all-time high in March 2024. This happened roughly one month before the halving actually occurred. You Might Also Like Tue, 12/30/2025 - 20:48 $415 Million Bitcoin End-of-Year Purchases Spotted as BTC Price Signals Rebound By Caroline Amosun During previous market cycles, ATHs would arrive 12–18 months after the halving events. The launch of spot ETFs is believed to be the main reason why the cycle started so early. This sucked all the liquidity out of the future. By the time 2025 arrived, the "institutional wall of money" that everyone expected had already been deployed in 2024. More broken stats Bitcoin used to operate on a strict "1 bear year, 3 bull years" cadence. The data shows that 2025 just killed this streak. This is the first time since the 2014 bear market that Bitcoin failed to complete a trilogy of green candles. On top of that, this is the first time that Bitcoin concluded a year with a price change of less than 10%. This once again shows that Bitcoin has lost its volatility. #Bitcoin Price Prediction