Bitcoin has experienced a sharp 20% pullback since november 2025, significantly underperforming gold (+9%) and the s&p 500 (+1%). this creates a substantial gap that market intelligence firm santiment and various analysts believe bitcoin is poised to close in 2026, indicating a potential for strong price movement.
The analysis is based on data from santiment, market intelligence firm, and includes insights from industry experts like garrett jin and cyrilxbt, as well as technical analysis from javon marks and coincodex. the source emphasizes strict editorial policy, expert review, and high reporting standards.
Despite current bearish sentiment (fear & greed index at 23) and recent underperformance, the overarching sentiment points to a bullish reversal in 2026. analysts cite late-cycle positioning, comparisons to the 2016-2017 parabolic run, and the expectation of capital rotation from other assets into bitcoin. key indicators to watch are whale accumulation and a pick-up in transaction activity alongside rising active addresses.
The article explicitly frames the opportunity as 'heading to 2026' and discusses a 'catch up' over the course of the next year. this suggests a sustained, longer-term trend shift rather than a short-term fluctuation.
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. According to market intelligence firm Santiment, Bitcoin is trailing both gold and the S&P 500 after a sharp pullback in November. Gold has climbed 9% since early November, the S&P 500 is up 1%, and Bitcoin is down about 20%, trading near $88,000 as of Wednesday. Based on reports, that gap has left crypto quieter while other markets show modest rebounds. Related Reading Crypto Headed For A $10 Trillion Future? Hoskinson Says RWA Is The Key 15 hours ago Whale Accumulation Signals Santiment’s data points to a split in behavior among holders. Small wallets were busy buying in the second half of 2025, while large wallets largely held steady and sold after pushing up to October’s all-time high. Large holders are often treated as market movers, so their cautious posture has kept pressure on prices. Historically, a shift where big holders start buying while retail eases off has marked real trend shifts, but that condition is not fully obvious yet. 📊 The correlation between Bitcoin & crypto compared to other major sectors is still lagging behind. Since November began, price performances are: 🥇 Gold: +9% 🏦 S&P 500: +1% 🪙 Bitcoin: -20% 🤞 Heading to 2026, there will remain an opportunity for crypto to play “catch up”. pic.twitter.com/FW8JaQboTV — Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 30, 2025 On-Chain Data Mixed Reports note some signs of stabilization. Long-term Bitcoin holders trimmed holdings from 14.8 million coins in mid-July to 14.3 million by December, then paused further selling. Active Bitcoin addresses rose 5.51% in the last 24 hours, yet transactions fell almost 30% over the same window. That mismatch suggests more people are watching the market, while fewer are committing funds. The raw numbers show interest, but not a clear shift back to broad trading activity. BTCUSD now trading at $88,756. Chart: TradingView Market Voices Weigh In Garrett Jin, who once ran exchange BitForex, said traders are already reallocating capital, arguing that money moves from one market to another when opportunities appear. Capital is the same and as always, it is wise to sell high and buy low, Jin wrote, according to posts on social channels. Another analyst, CyrilXBT, described the current setup as late-cycle positioning before a possible rotation: when liquidity turns, gold could cool, Bitcoin might lead, and other tokens could follow. Bitcoin right now continues to look just like the 2016-2017 period, just before a parabolic move. These two setups continue to flash in our mind due to the extreme similarities and bullish signals are even holding & flashing here too. $BTC ‘s looking ready to absolutely GO 🚀… pic.twitter.com/H1hInYwix8 — JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) December 30, 2025 Price Calls And Technical Views Technical commentators remain split. Javon Marks has pointed to parabolic patterns in Bitcoin’s chart that echo the 2016–2017 build-up and continues to forecast a rally toward $125K. Based on CoinCodex data, a more modest move is expected first: the platform forecasts BTC could reach $91,500 by January 30, 2026, a rise of 3.68% from current levels. Related Reading Crypto Policy In The Hot Seat As US Lawmaker Calls SEC Hearing 1 day ago CoinCodex lists sentiment as bearish and the Fear & Greed Index at 23 (Extreme Fear). The site also notes Bitcoin had 15/30 green days and 2.11% volatility over the past 30 days, with the last update on Dec 31, 2025. Short-term traders should focus on whether large wallets resume buying in volume, and whether transactions pick up alongside rising active addresses. If whales start accumulating again while long-term holders stop reducing positions, that combination would give a stronger signal than either metric alone. In the meantime, reports point to stabilization rather than a confirmed reversal, leaving room for a catch-up move in 2026 if liquidity and sentiment turn. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView