Crypto winter looms in 2026, but Cantor sees institutional growth and onchain shifts

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Crypto winter looms in 2026, but Cantor sees institutional growth and onchain shifts Cantor Fitzgerald sees early signs of a new crypto winter, but one that’s less chaotic, more institutional, and increasingly defined by DeFi, tokenization and regulatory clarity. By Helene Braun , AI Boost | Edited by Sheldon Reback Dec 29, 2025, 3:38 p.m. (Robin Marchant/Getty Images for Cantor Fitzgerald modified by CoinDesk) What to know : Cantor Fitzgerald said crypto may be entering a new downturn, but sees rising institutional adoption. Real-world asset tokenization and DEX trading are growing despite softening bitcoin prices, a new report says. Institutional investors, not retail traders, are now driving crypto trends, reshaping market dynamics. Bitcoin BTC $ 89,558.82 could be heading into a prolonged downturn, according to Cantor Fitzgerald, but that is likely to be a prelude to the crypto industry entering a more stable, institutionally driven phase. Markets are probably in the early phase of a crypto winter, echoing bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, according to a year-end report by analyst Brett Knoblauch. Bitcoin is roughly 85 days past its peak, and Knoblauch suggests prices could remain under pressure for months, possibly even testing Strategy’s (MSTR) average breakeven price near $75,000. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . Unlike past downturns, however, this one may not be defined by mass liquidations or structural failures. Institutional participants, not retail traders, are now shaping the contours of the market, according to Knoblauch, who identified a widening gap between token price performance and what’s actually happening under the hood, especially in decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenized assets and crypto infrastructure. Take real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. According to the report, the value of tokenized RWAs onchain — assets like credit products, U.S. Treasuries and equities — has tripled during the year to $18.5 billion. Cantor said the amount could surpass $50 billion in 2026, with the pace accelerating as more financial institutions experiment with onchain settlement. The shift is also playing out in how crypto is traded. Decentralized exchanges (DEXs), which operate without intermediaries, are gaining market share from centralized venues. While trading volumes may fall in 2026 alongside bitcoin’s price, Cantor said it expects DEXs, especially those trading perpetual futures, to keep growing as infrastructure and user experience improve. Regulatory clarity is a key piece in this evolving landscape. The recent passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY, in the U.S. marks a turning point, the report says. The law defines when a digital asset is treated as a security versus a commodity and assigns primary oversight of spot crypto markets to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) once decentralization thresholds are met. That legal framework could reduce headline risk and open the door for banks and asset managers to engage more directly with crypto markets. It also strengthens the legitimacy of decentralized protocols by offering compliance pathways, which have historically been a major barrier. Other trends Cantor highlights include the rise of onchain prediction markets, especially in sports betting, where volumes have ballooned to over $5.9 billion, more than 50% of DraftKings’ handle in the third quarter. Firms like Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN) and Gemini (GEMI) have entered the industry, introducing fairer, order book-driven alternatives to traditional sportsbooks. Still, risks remain. Bitcoin’s price is only about 17% above the average cost basis of bitcoin treasury company Strategy. A break below that level could spook the market, even if Cantor believes the firm is unlikely to sell. Meanwhile, digital asset trusts (DATs) have slowed accumulation as token prices and trust premiums compress. The coming year may not offer crypto’s next big breakout. But the groundwork for more durable infrastructure and deeper institutional adoption appears to be solidifying even as prices cool. Cantor fitzgerald Markets AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards . For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy . More For You State of the Blockchain 2025 By CoinDesk Research Dec 19, 2025 Commissioned by Input Output Group L1 tokens broadly underperformed in 2025 despite a backdrop of regulatory and institutional wins. Explore the key trends defining ten major blockchains below. What to know : 2025 was defined by a stark divergence: structural progress collided with stagnant price action. Institutional milestones were reached and TVL increased across most major ecosystems, yet the majority of large-cap Layer-1 tokens finished the year with negative or flat returns. This report analyzes the structural decoupling between network usage and token performance. We examine 10 major blockchain ecosystems, exploring protocol versus application revenues, key ecosystem narratives, mechanics driving institutional adoption, and the trends to watch as we head into 2026. View Full Report More For You Bitmine's ether stash tops 4.1 million tokens as crypto and cash holdings reach $13.2 billion By Will Canny , AI Boost | Edited by Stephen Alpher 52 minutes ago Tom Lee's publicly traded miner and treasury firm said it now controls more than 3% of ether’s total supply and is accelerating staking plans. What to know : Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) now holds 4.11 million ether, equal to about 3.4% of total supply, alongside $1 billion in cash. The company said it added more than 44,000 ETH in the past week and has staked over 408,000 tokens of the cryptocurrency. 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