Not-So-Merry Christmas: Bitcoin to Score Second-Worst Q4 Ever
Analysis
Price Impact
HighBitcoin is experiencing its second-worst q4 ever, dropping nearly 23% and significantly underperforming its historical average q4 return of +77%. this has led to a 'crash' and erased mid-year gains.
Trustworthiness
HighThe analysis is based on historical performance data and references a december 2025 report by cryptoquant, providing a solid foundation for the claims.
Price Direction
BearishBitcoin is experiencing a significant q4 decline, marked by 'demand exhaustion' from key buying groups (spot etf buyers, corporate treasuries) and whale exits, leading to heavy losses instead of the historically expected q4 gains.
Time Effect
ShortThe current q4 performance indicates immediate negative pressure on bitcoin's price and market sentiment, impacting current investor holdings and eroding recent gains.
Original Article:
Article Content:
Cover image via U.Today Read U.TODAY on Google News Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, is on track to score its second-worst Q4 of all time. It performed worse than that only during the devastatingly brutal crypto winter of 2018. Advertisement It is worth noting that the gap between the worst year (2018) and the second worst (2025) is significant, but 2025 is still noticeably deeper in the red than the other bad years (2014, 2019, 2022). It separates 2025 from a "mild correction" and pushes it into the "crash" territory. The average return for Q4 is 77%. This makes Q4 historically the strongest quarter for Bitcoin. Investors often rely on Q4 to save their portfolio's yearly performance. HOT Stories Not-So-Merry Christmas: Bitcoin to Score Second-Worst Q4 Ever Shiba Inu (SHIB) Price Flashes Bullish Signal, XRP Sees 34% Jump in Weekly Inflows, Cardano Midnight (NIGHT) up 20% — Crypto News Digest XRP Sees Sudden $0 During a $2,279 Million Liquidation Tsunami Morning Crypto Report: -80% for Bitcoin Is Real: Legendary Trader, XRP Re-Flips 'New Cardano,' Shiba Inu (SHIB) on the Verge of 'Black Friday' You Might Also Like Tue, 12/23/2025 - 15:38 Bitcoin (BTC) Can Break $100,000 in One Move, Data Shows By Arman Shirinyan Advertisement By dropping nearly 23%, Bitcoin has underperformed its historical average by practically 100 percentage points (from an expected +77% to a realized -23%). Instead of the usual "gift" of gains that Bitcoin holders are used to receiving in December (like the +479% in 2013 or +168% in 2020), they are receiving a heavy loss. The year started poorly and is ending even worse. This is psychologically draining for investors because the gains made in the middle of the year (Q2) have been largely erased by the losses at the end (Q4). Advertisement Why is Q4 so awful? According to a December 2025 report by CryptoQuant, the primary driver of the crash is "demand exhaustion." Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of roughly $126,000 in early October 2025. The main groups that drove the 2024–2025 rally (spot ETF buyers, corporate treasuries, and so son) have ceased buying. Moreover, there have been plenty of reports of whales exiting the market. The expectation of a year-end rally trapped many traders who bought in November. #Bitcoin Price Prediction