Over $23.6 billion in bitcoin options are set to expire this friday, marking the largest expiry ever. this event will remove significant dealer hedges and, coupled with extremely low liquidity during the holiday week, could trigger sharp and violent price movements in either direction.
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The options expiry could lead to sharp moves in either direction (bullish or bearish) as hedges are removed and open interest disappears. the period leading up to expiry might see sideways trading, followed by a clear directional move due to amplified volatility and low liquidity.
The impact is expected immediately following the options expiry this friday, with potential for significant volatility and price swings in the very short term due to the event's instantaneous nature and current market conditions.
Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. The Bitcoin price could experience major swings this Friday as billions of dollars in options are set to expire. A crypto market expert has warned that the scale of this event could trigger “something big,” potentially affecting both volatility and the actions of retail and institutional investors . Bitcoin Price Braces For Major Moves This Friday On Monday, crypto analyst NoLimit signaled that this upcoming Friday could be a historic moment for Bitcoin. According to the expert, over $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options are scheduled to expire on December 26, marking the largest options expiry the market has ever seen. The analyst has stated that anyone with crypto holdings should pay close attention. Related Reading The Bitcoin Bull And Bear Cases That Crypto Traders Should Know About 1 day ago NoLimit explained that an options expiry involves leveraged bets on Bitcoin’s price . He stated that calls are wagers that the price will rise, while puts predict it will fall. The analyst also emphasized that when these options expire, they either become worthless or force buying and selling in the spot market to hedge the positions. He also highlighted that with $23.6 billion in options expiring in a single day, a massive amount of risk will be removed from dealer books all at once. According to the analysis, this risk offloading is a key driver of market volatility , as the magnitude of the expiry is unprecedented. Source: Chart from Nolimit on X Looking at the data, previous year-end expiries were significantly smaller. In 2021, the options expiry was around $6 billion, followed by $2.4 billion in 2022. It climbed to $11 billion in 2023 and reached $19.8 billion in 2024. NoLimit has suggested that this year’s jump to $23.6 billion represents a significant shift in market dynamics. The analyst pointed out that retail investors no longer dominate the market . He stated that institutional-sized risk is now being repriced in real time, and this Friday could trigger significant price movements. NoLimit also suggested that the scale and timing of the expiry make it a critical event for traders and investors in the market. Analyst Reveals Why This Friday Truly Matters In his analysis, NoLimit outlined the specific reasons why this Friday truly matters as Bitcoin’s $23.6 billion options prepare to expire. He explained that dealers are heavily hedged around key strikes, and once expiry hits, those hedges are removed. As a result, the shift can trigger sharp moves for Bitcoin in either direction. Related Reading Don’t Expect A Fast Bitcoin Move – Here’s How Long The Last Leg Could Take 2 days ago The analyst noted that current market conditions could further amplify the impact. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s liquidity is extremely low during the holiday week, and less volume typically means each order has more influence. As a result, the expert stated that a violent price move could occur even without major news. NoLimit also noted that much of Bitcoin’s Open Interest is concentrated near the major psychological levels. Once the expiry passes, this open interest disappears entirely. He explained that this is why markets often experience sideways trading leading into expiry, followed by a clear directional move shortly afterward. The analyst added that volatility is the key setup this week. He says the crucial moment to watch is the Bitcoin price after the expiry, not before. BTC trading at $87,643 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com