Miner capitulation is a contrarian signal, indicates renewed bitcoin momentum, VanEck says

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Miner capitulation is a contrarian signal, indicates renewed bitcoin momentum, VanEck says VanEck data shows declining bitcoin mining activity has historically preceded strong returns in bitcoin. By James Van Straten | Edited by Sheldon Reback Dec 23, 2025, 10:09 a.m. Bitcoin miner capitulation acts as a contrarian signal: VanEck (Sternschnuppenreiter/Pixabay modified by CoinDesk) What to know : VanEck data shows that in the past 30 days bitcoin’s hashrate dropped by the most since April 2024 Hashrate declines are historically aligned with miner capitulation and markets closer to local bottoms than tops. According to VanEck, periods of negative 90-day hashrate growth have delivered positive 180-day bitcoin returns 77% of the time. Declining bitcoin BTC $ 87,497.82 mining activity is often interpreted as a sign of network stress, reflecting weaker miner profitability, declining hashrate and concerns over the economic sustainability of mining operations. It is commonly assumed to be bad for the bitcoin price. Digital assets investment firm VanEck , however, argues that periods of falling hashrate — the total computational power being used by miners to secure the bitcoin network and process transactions — has historically functioned as a contrarian indicator, indicating improving price momentum rather than a signal of structural weakness. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . This dynamic is emerging as bitcoin trades around $87,000, following a 36% peak-to-trough slide from the October's all-time high. Over the past 30 days, bitcoin's network hashrate recorded its steepest decline since April 2024, as miners faced compressed margins from a weaker BTC price and that month's "halving," an event that cuts block rewards by 50% roughly every four years, reducing new bitcoin issuance. VanEck notes that the shrinking hashrate when bitcoin prices fall reflects miner capitulation, with inefficient or highly leveraged operators shutting down or selling bitcoin, which contributes to sell-side spot pressure. In reality, hashrate declines tend to lag behind the price drops. According to VanEck, the timing has historically placed the market closer to cyclical bottoms than tops. As higher-cost miners exit, lower difficulty adjustments occur, making it easier to mine bitcoin and ensuring blocks are produced at a consistent pace. The resulting improved miner profitability then eases forced selling. The current price correction appears selective, VanEck noted, with shutdowns concentrated among higher cost or geopolitcially exposed operations. VanEck found that when the 90-day hashrate growth has been negative, bitcoin has delivered positive 180-day forward returns 77% of the time, meaning the price performance over the following six months is high than average than during periods of rising hashrate. The firm estimated that buying bitcoin during sustained hashrate corrections has improved 180-day forward returns by roughly 2,400 basis points, reinforcing miner capitulation as one of bitcoin more durable contrarian signals. VanEck Bitcoin News Hashrate Miner Revenue More For You State of the Blockchain 2025 By CoinDesk Research Dec 19, 2025 Commissioned by Input Output Group L1 tokens broadly underperformed in 2025 despite a backdrop of regulatory and institutional wins. Explore the key trends defining ten major blockchains below. What to know : 2025 was defined by a stark divergence: structural progress collided with stagnant price action. Institutional milestones were reached and TVL increased across most major ecosystems, yet the majority of large-cap Layer-1 tokens finished the year with negative or flat returns. This report analyzes the structural decoupling between network usage and token performance. We examine 10 major blockchain ecosystems, exploring protocol versus application revenues, key ecosystem narratives, mechanics driving institutional adoption, and the trends to watch as we head into 2026. View Full Report More For You Bitcoin trails polar opposites, gold and copper, as 'fear and AI' trade lifts tangible assets By Omkar Godbole | Edited by Shaurya Malwa 2 hours ago Gold and copper have outperformed other major assets this year, with gold rallying more than copper. What to know : Gold and copper have outperformed other major assets this year, with gold rallying more than copper. Bitcoin has underperformed, failing to attract both fear-driven and AI-driven investment, highlighting a shift towards tangible assets. The divergence in performance between gold and copper reflects market bets on both AI-driven growth and systemic financial fears. 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