Is Bitcoin Primed for a 2026 Breakout? Analysts Weigh History vs. Fundamentals

In brief Bitcoin's RSI falling below 30 has led to bullish reversals five times since 2023, a pattern one analyst says could point to a $170K target if repeated. Other experts caution the pattern is "conditionally bullish," with the short-term path dependent on macro liquidity and risk appetite, not guaranteed by history. The fundamental case rests on transient selling pressures ending and "phenomenally bullish" institutional ETF inflows creating a record year in 2026, Decrypt was told. Decrypt’s Art, Fashion, and Entertainment Hub. Discover SCENE As the year comes to a close, the outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market is cautious at best. However, a bullish surprise may be in store for investors in 2026, according to some analysts. After a sustained selloff from the October 6 peak of $126,080, Bitcoin stabilized around $84,000 on November 22, signaling an end to sustained selling pressure. The relative strength index, which measures the underlying asset's momentum, dipped below the oversold level of 30. Since 2023, this has happened five times—and each time, Bitcoin’s subsequent trajectory has been bullish. If history repeats, this pattern suggests the top crypto could rally to $170,000 in under three months, according to an analysis from Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor. “Unless you believe the four-year cycle is still in play, which we don’t, this chart should hold up contextually over time,” Bittel noted in a Wednesday tweet . A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it. This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0. So far, it’s been pretty bang on. Unless you… pic.twitter.com/FRLt5w7oFT — Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) December 17, 2025 Other analysts urge caution, viewing such patterns as supportive rather than predictive. “These historical patterns offer useful context for market psychology, but I would treat them as conditionally bullish rather than deterministic,” Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix, told Decrypt . “RSI dropping below 30 typically signals capitulation and deleveraging, after which price tends to stabilize and recover, but that does not guarantee a repeat of the same trajectory,” Chen said. “Projecting a move toward $170K... depends heavily on macro liquidity, monetary policy, and broader risk appetite.” A broader historical pattern also favors a rebound. For over a decade, every down year for Bitcoin has been followed by a bullish one. With Bitcoin's year-to-date performance down roughly 5%, a negative close for 2025 would, historically, set the stage for a positive 2026. On this point, Chen noted it “highlights Bitcoin’s cyclical mean-reversion rather than an automatic upside acceleration.” In essence, he said, these factors “support a constructive medium- to long-term outlook, while the short-term path may still involve volatility and further validation.” Bitcoin is up 0.7% over the past 24 hours and is currently trading at around $88,000, according to CoinGecko data. Sentiment remains cautious, with users on prediction market Myriad , owned by Decrypt ’s parent company Dastan, assigning a 61% chance to Bitcoin hitting $100,000 before $69,000. That number has remained roughly the same for over a week, despite multiple attempts by the top crypto to break $90,000.  Focusing on fundamentals Beyond historical patterns, fundamental drivers and institutional realities suggest a robust setup for the coming year. “The recent market weakness stems from two transient catalysts,” Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, previously told Decrypt , citing "investors... selling in anticipation of the four-year cycle" and lingering fears from the "October 10th leverage washout." He believes once these pass, a sustained rally will begin. The macro environment itself may provide fuel. Hougan frames it as a “heads we win, tails we win position,” where both economic strength and stimulus-driven weakness are seen as tailwinds for crypto. The most concrete bullish case lies in institutional adoption. Hougan called the ETF trajectory "phenomenally bullish," noting that "trillions of dollars" from major wirehouses can now access the market, leading him to predict that 2026 will be "a record year for inflows." This growth may also lead crypto to chart its own course. Hougan anticipates a "lower" correlation with stocks, as "crypto-specific factors" like tokenization and institutional adoption become the primary price drivers, signaling a maturing market moving on its own fundamentals. Daily Debrief Newsletter Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more. Your Email Get it! Get it!