Nasdaq's stalled rebound and bearish engulfing candle, coupled with the move index signaling renewed treasury volatility, indicate significant downside risk for btc due to strong historical correlation.
The analysis is provided by coindesk, a reputable crypto news source, and written by a chartered market technician (cmt) using established technical indicators and market correlations.
Btc's three-week bounce appears vulnerable to reversal, with technical patterns (bearish engulfing candle, rejection at $94,000) and macro correlations (nasdaq, move index) pointing to a potential re-test of $80,000 lows.
The analysis focuses on immediate price retreats, weekly chart patterns, and the imminent risk of re-testing recent lows, suggesting a short-term price movement outlook.
Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email BTC $80K Check-Back Risk Rises as Nasdaq Rebound Stalls Nasdaq and MOVE index patterns warrant caution for BTC bulls. By Omkar Godbole , AI Boost Dec 15, 2025, 7:47 a.m. Nasdaq's rebound stalls, posing downside risk to BTC. What to know : Bitcoin retreated from $93,000 to under $90,000 since Friday despite the spot-Fed weakness in the dollar index. Nasdaq's bearish engulfing candle points to potential downside volatility ahead. The MOVE index hints at renewed volatility in Treasury notes. This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole. Bitcoin's BTC $ 89,655.32 three-week price bounce looks vulnerable to a reversal as the Nasdaq, Wall Street's tech-heavy index, hit a wall last week, hinting at potential trouble ahead. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . Since hitting $80,000 lows on Nov. 21, BTC has steadily bounced above $90,000, carving higher lows and highs in a countertrend rising channel within the broader downtrend. The recovery appeared to have legs, as the dollar index declined following Wednesday's Fed rate cut, and a longer-duration trend indicator hinted at a potential bullish shift in BTC momentum. Yet these failed to spark a sustained rally. Instead, BTC retreated from $93,000 Friday to nearly $88,000 on Sunday before stabilizing around $89,600 at press time. BTC ended last week with a bearish candle comprising long upper wick, indicating rejection above $94,000 and a small red body with negligible lower wick. This classic rejection pattern signals fading bullish momentum and "sell-the-rallies" dominance at highs. BTC: Daily and weekly charts in candlestick format. (TradingView) This pattern, alongside Nasdaq's stalled rebound from November lows, raises concerns of a deeper BTC drop toward $80,000. Nasdaq dropped nearly 2% last week, forming a bearish engulfing candle that reversed the prior week's gain. Coupled with a bearish MACD on the weekly timeframe, it signals potential downside volatility that could spill into BTC, given their strong positive correlation, especially pronounced during NDX's downtrends when BTC often amplifies the hit, as Wintermute recently noted . Nasdaq's weekly chart. (TradingView) Another yellow flag for risk-asset bulls is the MOVE index, which measures the 30-day implied volatility in U.S. Treasury notes. The MOVE index put in an inverted hammer candle last week. This candlestick pattern, appearing after a prolonged downtrend as in MOVE's case, is taken to represent an early sign of bullish revival. MOVE's weekly chart in candlestick format. (TradingView) In other words, the MOVE index may turn higher as a sign of increased volatility in Treasury notes, which tends to cause financial tightening worldwide and cap gains in risk assets. Historically, BTC has tended to move in the opposite direction of the MOVE index. Key levels All things considered, BTC appears more likely to break down from the counter-trend channel than higher, opening the door for a re-test of recent $80,000 lows. On the upside, clearing $94,000-$95,000 is needed to reclaim short-term bullishness, though heavy resistance awaits from $96,000 to $100,000, including the 50-day SMA and Ichimoku cloud. Bitcoin News Markets Nasdaq Treasury AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards . For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy . More For You Protocol Research: GoPlus Security By CoinDesk Research Nov 14, 2025 Commissioned by GoPlus What to know : As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M. GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month. Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B. View Full Report More For You Doha Bank Issues $150M Digital Bond Using Euroclear’s DLT Platform By Sam Reynolds | Edited by Omkar Godbole 50 minutes ago The deal achieved T+0 settlement on a permissioned distributed ledger rather than a public blockchain, reflecting a growing regional shift toward regulated digital bond infrastructure. What to know : Doha Bank completed a $150 million digital bond using Euroclear’s distributed ledger infrastructure, highlighting a preference for regulated DLT systems over public blockchains for institutional tokenized debt. The bond was listed on the London Stock Exchange’s International Securities Market, achieving same-day settlement through a permissioned DLT platform. The transaction is part of a regional effort to modernize capital markets infrastructure by integrating DLT into existing systems rather than creating new crypto-native systems. Read full story Latest Crypto News Doha Bank Issues $150M Digital Bond Using Euroclear’s DLT Platform 50 minutes ago ETH, SOL, ADA Slide as Bitcoin Sees Year End Profit-Taking 1 hour ago Dogecoin Slides Alongside Bitcoin, Memecoins as Traders Pare Risk Bets 2 hours ago Trump's Voice Would Have 'No Weight' in Rate Decisions, Fed Front-Runner Hassett Says 2 hours ago XRP Spot ETFs Rack Up 30-Day Inflow Streak in Divergence From Bitcoin, Ether 3 hours ago XRP Fails to Clear $2.00 for Third Time, Setting Up Near-Term Inflection Point 3 hours ago Top Stories Bitcoin Drops Below $90K Amid Fading Risk Appetite Ahead of Key Macro Events 17 hours ago Barclays Sees ‘Down-Year’ for Crypto in 2026 Without Big Catalysts 16 hours ago Spanish Authorities Bust Crypto Kidnapping Ring After Deadly Attack 18 hours ago From Wall Street to the World Cup: How Football Became Crypto’s Biggest Gateway Drug 17 hours ago YO Labs Raises $10M to Scale Cross-Chain Crypto Yield Optimization Protocol 16 hours ago Tether’s Bid to Buy Italian Soccer Club Juventus Rejected by Majority Shareholder Exor Dec 13, 2025 In this article BTC BTC $ 89,655.32 ◢ 0.70 %