Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Halving Cycles Are Over
Analysis
Price Impact
HighA major banking institution challenging the long-standing bitcoin halving cycle theory, coupled with significant downward revisions of future price targets, represents a fundamental shift in market narrative and investor expectations.
Trustworthiness
HighStandard chartered is a reputable financial institution. their analysis is corroborated by other prominent analysts (bernstein, cryptoquant ceo) who also point to the influence of bitcoin etfs.
Price Direction
NeutralWhile standard chartered still expects btc to hit new all-time highs, potentially in h1 2026, they have significantly lowered their previous price predictions for 2025-2027. this suggests a less explosive, more tempered long-term growth trajectory compared to past halving cycles, moving away from hyper-volatility but still implying upward movement.
Time Effect
LongThe analysis redefines the fundamental drivers of bitcoin's price cycles, moving from a four-year halving model to an etf-driven model, impacting long-term investment strategies and expectations for future market peaks over several years.
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Cover image via U.Today Read U.TODAY on Google News Banking giant Standard Chartered believes that Bitcoin's four-year cycles are already over. Advertisement Historically, Bitcoin price movements have been strongly tied to "halving" events (when the block reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half, roughly every 4 years). Typically, prices would peak about 18 months after a halving. However, Standard Chartered argues that this old logic no longer reliably predicts price cycles following the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. HOT Stories Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Halving Cycles Are Over Morning Crypto Report: Ripple CTO Says XRP Holdings Are Undervalued, Andrew Tate Declares He's 'Huge on Bitcoin,' Solana Drops Rare XRP Mention Shiba Inu Whale Activity Hits Highest Level Since June Crypto Market Prediction: No Bitcoin, $100,000 Next Time, Is Shiba Inu (SHIB) Wearing Bull Horns Again? XRP Becoming Dominant The rationale is that ETFs make Bitcoin more accessible to mainstream investors. Advertisement For this new dynamic to be proven, BTC would need to break its current all-time high of $126,000. They expect this breakout could happen in the first half of 2026. Standard Chartered has also lowered its BTC price predictions for the following years (from $200,000 to $100,000 in 2025, from $300,000 to $200,000 in 2026, from $400,000 to $225,000 in 2027, and from $500,000 to $300,000). You Might Also Like Wed, 04/16/2025 - 16:07 Bitcoin Hits 25% Milestone on Road to Next Halving: Details By Tomiwabold Olajide Bitcoin is currently changing hands at $90,397, according to CoinGecko data. On the same page Apart from Standard Chartered, there are quite a few analysts and market watchers who argue that the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle is no longer relevant. In a recent research note, Bernstein analysts assert that the traditional four‑year halving cycle is effectively over due to Bitcoin ETFs dominating the scene. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also claims that the flagship cryptocurrency no longer follows four-year cycles, citing institutional buying power. That said, it remains to be seen whether BTC will be able to reclaim its current all-time high next year. #Bitcoin Price Prediction