The crypto market is currently in a narrow range, but significant two-sided volatility is expected around the upcoming fed interest-rate meeting. traders are deferring bullish bets until after this event, which could introduce substantial price swings based on the rate decision and forward guidance.
The analysis is from coindesk, a reputable source, and includes direct quotes from market professionals (tdx strategies, cf benchmarks, brn) and references to key market metrics (cvd, etf flows).
Bitcoin is currently in a boring range-play ($90,000-$95,000). while there's a technical 'mini-ascending channel' forming (a temporary relief rally), it's within a broader downtrend. a clear breakout above $96,600 is needed to revive a bullish outlook. the impending fed meeting creates uncertainty, suggesting either upward or downward volatility.
The primary catalyst for price movement, the fed meeting, concludes tomorrow, implying an immediate, short-term impact on market volatility and direction.
Crypto Daybook Americas Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email No Direction: Crypto Daybook Americas Your day-ahead look for Dec. 9, 2025 By Omkar Godbole | Edited by Sheldon Reback Dec 9, 2025, 12:19 p.m. (Danial Igdery/Unsplash modified by CoinDesk ) What to know : You are viewing Crypto Daybook Americas, your morning briefing on what happened in the crypto markets overnight and what's expected during the coming day. Crypto Daybook Americas will kickstart your morning with comprehensive insights. If you're not already subscribed to the email, click here . You won't want to start your day without it. By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The crypto market lacks clear direction. Bitcoin BTC $ 90,494.54 is still in its boring range-play between $90,000 and $95,000, and there's little cheer in the broader market, as evidenced by over 2% declines in the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) and CoinDesk 80 (CD80) indexes. ZEC is the only major token to have gained more than 3% over 24 hours. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . The lackluster action could be due to traders pushing back any plans for bullish bets until after the tomorrow's Fed's interest-rate meeting, which could bring volatility. "Mindful of the potential for significant two-sided volatility pre and post the FOMC event, clients seeking to increase upside exposures for Q1 2026 have expressed a preference to defer execution until after the event, and we expect this flow will notably increase during the latter part of this week," TDX Strategies' founder Dick Lo said in a market note. The Fed meeting kicks off today and will conclude tomorrow, a 25 basis-point rate cut is priced in. Some traders are worried that the decision could be accompanied by hawkish forward guidance, pointing to slower easing in 2026. These expectations could set the stage for a rally, according to CF Benchmarks. "If we look at Fed funds futures today, the market is pricing in a rate cut on Wednesday, but not another one until June. We believe there’s some room for upside here should the Fed signal that there is potential for another cut before the June meeting. That becomes more likely if the labor market continues to soften and inflation expectations stay in the 2–3% range," the index provider said in an email to CoinDesk. Key metrics like the cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicate continued dominance of sellers in the spot market. "Spot flows remain soft. Spot CVD dropped from –$40M to –$111M, signaling persistent sell flow even as price holds at $90K," said Timothy Misir, the head of research at BRN. In other news, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin's proposal to make Ethereum transactions more predictable and create a trustless onchain gas futures market is grabbing eyeballs. Crypto exchange KuCoin released a Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) Gateway proof-of-concept, an experimental prototype gateway system designed to integrate quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms. In traditional markets, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to increase, hitting three-month highs, and the yen traded weak despite the BOJ rate-hike expectations. Stay alert! Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today What to Watch For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ". Crypto Dec. 9: Twenty One Capital begins trading on NYSE under ticker XXI following business combination with Cantor Equity Partners (CEP). Macro Dec. 9, 7 a.m.: Mexico Nov. inflation rate. Headline YoY Est. 3.69%, MoM Est. 0.56%. Core YoY Est. 4.34%, MoM Est. 0.10%. Dec. 9, 8:15 a.m.: ADP Employment Change Weekly (Prev. -13.5K). Dec. 9, 10 a.m.: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. Sept. Job Openings Est. 7.2M, Sept. Job Quits (Prev. 3.091M). Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Nothing scheduled. Token Events For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ". Governance votes & calls ENS DAO is voting on a "temperature check" to commission an independent retrospective of its operations and spending over the past two years. Voting ends Dec. 9. CoW DAO is voting on CIP-76 to approve a 2026 budget of 13.8 million USDC and a 100 million COW token top-up for its Core Team's operations and incentives. Voting ends Dec. 9. GnosisDAO is voting on GIP-144 to renew Blockscout's hosting and SLA services for the 2026 calendar year. Voting ends Dec. 9. Unlocks No major unlocks. Token Launches Dec. 9: HumidiFi’s WET token claiming period starts, liquidity pools go live. Conferences For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ". Day 2 of 2: Bitcoin MENA 2025 (Abu Dhabi) Day 2 of 2: Blockchain Association’s Policy Summit 2025 (Washington) Day 2 of 4: Abu Dhabi Finance Week 2025 (Abu Dhabi) Market Movements BTC is down 1.27% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $90.255,53 (24hrs: -2.09%) ETH is down 0.84% at $3,106.60 (24hrs: -1.73%) CoinDesk 20 is down 0.87% at 2,877.34 (24hrs: -2.11%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.81% BTC funding rate is at 0.0068% (7.46% annualized) on Binance DXY is little changed at 99.05 Gold futures are up 0.37% at $4,233.50 Silver futures are up 1.14% at $59.07 Nikkei 225 closed up 0.14% at 50,655.10 Hang Seng closed down 1.29% at 25,434.23 FTSE is up 0.13% at 9,657.24 Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.16% at 5,716.21 DJIA closed on Monday down 0.45% at 47,739.32 S&P 500 closed down 0.35% at 6,846.51 Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.14% at 23,545.90 S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.45% at 31,169.97 S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 3.127,62 U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.4 bps at 4.158% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.08% at 6,861.25 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.04% at 25,673.25 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.11% at 47,846.00 Bitcoin Stats BTC Dominance: 59.24% (unchanged) Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03444 (unchanged) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,042 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $38.26 Total Fees: 2.61 BTC / $237,648 CME Futures Open Interest: 121,520 BTC BTC priced in gold: 21.4 oz BTC vs gold market cap: 6.04% Technical Analysis BTC's daily chart. (TradingView) The chart shows BTC's daily price action in candlestick format. BTC has printed higher lows and highs since Nov. 21, carving out a mini-ascending channel within a broader downtrend. In other words, the recent rise represents a temporary relief rally and needs to extend beyond $96,600. That would confirm a breakout from the downtrend, reviving the bullish outlook. Crypto Equities Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $274.2 (+1.66%), pre-market down 0.71% to $272.26 Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $83.96 (-1.94%), -0.98% at $83.21 Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.09 (+2.27%), +0.8% at $26.3 Bullish (BLSH): closed at $45.93 (-1.12%), unchanged MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $12.05 (+2.64%), -1.24% at $11.9 Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.96 (unchanged), -0.87% at $14.83 Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.69 (+3.39%), -0.17% at $17.66 CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $13.89 (+1.28%), -0.43% at $13.83 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $46.43 (+1.98%) Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.84 (+1.57%) Crypto Treasury Companies Strategy (MSTR): closed at $183.69 (+2.63%), -1.05% at $181.77 Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $19.77 (+5.89%), unchanged. SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $11.06 (+3.17%), -1.45% at $10.90 Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.61 (-1.88%), +1.53% at $2.65 Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.72 (+2.99%) ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Daily net flows: -$60.4 million Cumulative net flows: $57.54 billion Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flows: $35.5 million Cumulative net flows: $12.93 billion Total ETH holdings ~6.25 million Source: Farside Investors While You Were Sleeping Bitcoin Traders Target $20K Bitcoin Strike as Deep Out-of-the-Money Options Gain Traction (CoinDesk): Traders are snapping up inexpensive long-dated contracts that can deliver outsized returns in extreme price swings, with heavy interest in far-off strikes reflecting a preference for volatility exposure over directional bets. Saylor Says Strategy Will Not Issue Preferred Equity in Japan, Giving Metaplanet a 12-Month Head Start (CoinDesk): Metaplanet plans to introduce two new digital credit instruments, Mercury and Mars, into Japan's perpetual preferred market, aiming to significantly increase yields compared with traditional bank deposits. USDC Issuer Circle Secures Abu Dhabi's ADGM License in Middle East Expansion (CoinDesk): The approval allows the firm to offer local regulated money-service functions and expand USDC’s use in regional payments and settlements as authorities develop a broader framework for digital assets. Malaysian Royal Launches Ringgit-Backed Stablecoin for Payments (Bloomberg): Bullish Aim, led by Ismail Ibrahim, is introducing a token built on the Zetrix network and supported by cash holdings and short-term Malaysian sovereign instruments for digital-payment use. Crypto Daybook Americas More For You Protocol Research: GoPlus Security By CoinDesk Research Nov 14, 2025 Commissioned by GoPlus What to know : As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M. GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month. Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B. View Full Report More For You Perky, With Bearish Overtones: Crypto Daybook Americas By Omkar Godbole | Edited by Sheldon Reback Dec 8, 2025 Your day-ahead look for Dec. 8, 2025 What to know : You are viewing Crypto Daybook Americas, your morning briefing on what happened in the crypto markets overnight and what's expected during the coming day. Crypto Daybook Americas will kickstart your morning with comprehensive insights. If you're not already subscribed to the email, click here . You won't want to start your day without it. 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