The high probability (87%) of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the us federal reserve is a significant bullish macro catalyst for the entire crypto market, boosting investor confidence and liquidity for risk assets. bitcoin holding above $90,000 provides crucial psychological support, while ethereum is seeing strong accumulation from whales despite broader corporate acquisition slowdowns. however, regulatory calls for defi by citadel introduce uncertainty for specific sub-sectors.
Insights are based on reliable data from cme group's fedwatch tool, coinmarketcap's fear & greed index, bitwise research, and statements from industry figures like arthur hayes, providing a robust foundation for the analysis.
The anticipated fed rate cut is the primary bullish driver, expected to inject optimism and capital into the market, favoring risk assets. bitcoin's resilience at the $90k level and aggressive whale accumulation in ethereum indicate strong underlying demand for major cryptocurrencies. while some altcoins (monad, canton, starknet) face specific headwinds or regulatory uncertainty, the overarching macro tailwind and demand for top assets are expected to drive the overall market upwards.
The fed decision is an immediate short-term catalyst, with its effects on liquidity and market sentiment likely playing out over the coming days to weeks. whale accumulation patterns tend to influence prices over the short to mid-term.
Zoltan Vardai 2 minutes ago Bitcoin treads water at $90K as whales eat the Ethereum dip: Finance Redefined Corporate Ether acquisitions declined 81% in the past three months, but the largest corporate ETH holders continued to scoop up billions of dollars in Ether. Listen 0:00 Newsletter COINTELEGRAPH IN YOUR SOCIAL FEED Cryptocurrency markets saw another week of consolidation following last week’s long-awaited market recovery. While Bitcoin ( BTC ) remained above the key $90,000 psychological level, investor sentiment continued to be dominated by “fear,” with a marginal improvement from 20 to 25 within the week, according to CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed index . In the wider crypto space, the Ether ( ETH ) treasury trade appears to be unwinding, as the monthly acquisitions by Ethereum digital asset treasuries (DATs) fell 81% in the past three months from August’s peak. Still, the biggest corporate Ether holder, BitMine Immersion Technologies, continued to amass ETH, while other treasury firms carried on with their fundraising efforts for future acquisitions. Fear & Greed index, all-time chart. Source: CoinMarketCap Investors are also awaiting the key interest rate decision during the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on Wednesday to provide more cues about monetary policy leading into 2026. Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, up from 62% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Interest rate cut probabilities. Source: CMEgroup.com Ethereum treasury trade unwinds 80% as handful of whales dominate buys The Ethereum treasury trade appears to be unwinding as monthly acquisitions continue to decline since the August high, though the largest players continue to scoop up billions of the Ether supply. Investments from Ethereum DATs fell 81% in the past three months, from 1.97 million Ether in August to 370,000 ETH in November, according to Bitwise, an asset management firm. “ETH DAT bear continues,” wrote Max Shennon, senior research associate at Bitwise, in a Tuesday X post . Despite the slowdown, some companies with stronger financial backgrounds continued to accumulate the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency or raise funds for future purchases. Source: Max Shennon BitMine Immersion Technologies , the largest corporate Ether holder, accumulated about 679,000 Ether worth $2.13 billion over the past month, completing 62% of its target to accumulate 5% of the ETH supply, according to data from the Strategicethreserve . BitMine holds an additional $882 million worth of cash according to the data aggregator, which may signal more incoming Ether accumulation. Top corporate Ether holders. Source: Strategicethreserve.xyz Continue reading Citadel causes uproar by urging SEC to regulate DeFi tokenized stocks Market maker Citadel Securities has recommended that the US Securities and Exchange Commission tighten regulations on decentralized finance regarding tokenized stocks, causing backlash from crypto users. Citadel Securities told the SEC in a letter on Tuesday that DeFi developers, smart-contract coders, and self-custody wallet providers should not be given “broad exemptive relief” for offering trading of tokenized US equities. It argued that DeFi trading platforms likely fall under the definitions of an “exchange” or “broker-dealer” and should be regulated under securities laws if offering tokenized stocks. “Granting broad exemptive relief to facilitate the trading of a tokenized share via DeFi protocols would create two separate regulatory regimes for the trading of the same security,” it argued. “This outcome would be the exact opposite of the “technology-neutral” approach taken by the Exchange Act.” Citadel’s letter, made in response to the SEC looking for feedback on how it should approach regulating tokenized stocks , has drawn considerable backlash from the crypto community and organizations advocating for innovation in the blockchain space. Continue reading Arthur Hayes warns Monad could crash 99%, calls it high-risk “VC coin” Crypto veteran Arthur Hayes has issued a warning over Monad, saying the recently launched layer-1 blockchain could plunge as much as 99% and end up as another failed experiment driven by venture capital hype rather than real adoption. Speaking on Altcoin Daily, the former BitMEX chief described the project as “another high FDV, low-float VC coin,” arguing that its token structure alone puts retail traders at risk. FDV stands for Fully Diluted Value , which is the market value of a crypto project if all its tokens were already in circulation. According to Hayes, projects with a large gap between FDV and circulating supply often experience early price spikes, followed by deep selloffs once insider tokens unlock. “It’s going to be another bear chain,” Hayes said, adding that while every new coin gets an initial pump, that does not mean it will develop a lasting use case. Hayes said most new layer-1 networks ultimately fail, with only a handful likely to retain long-term relevance. He identified Bitcoin, Ether, Solana ( SOL ) and Zcash ( ZEC ) as the small group of protocols he expects to survive the next cycle. Last year, Monad raised $225 million in funding from venture capital firm Paradigm. The layer-1 blockchain went live on Monday, accompanied by an airdrop of its MON token . Monad’s MON token up 40% since launch. Source: CoinMarketCap Continue reading $25 billion crypto lending market now led by “transparent” players: Galaxy The crypto lending market has become more transparent than ever, led by the likes of Tether, Nexo and Galaxy, and has just hit an aggregate loan book of nearly $25 billion outstanding in the third quarter. The size of the crypto lending market has increased by more than 200% since the beginning of 2024, according to Galaxy Research. Its latest quarter puts it at its highest since its peak in Q1 2022. However, it has yet to return to its peak of $37 billion at that time. The main difference is the number of new centralized finance lending platforms and much more transparency, said Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn. Thorn said on Sunday that he was proud of the chart and the transparency of its contributors, adding that it was a “big change from prior market cycles.” The crypto lending landscape has seen many new platforms in the past three years. Source: Alex Thorn Continue reading Portal to Bitcoin raises $25 million and launches atomic OTC desk Bitcoin-native interoperability protocol Portal to Bitcoin has raised $25 million in funding amid the launch of what it describes as an atomic over-the-counter (OTC) trading desk. According to a Thursday announcement shared with Cointelegraph, the company raised $25 million in a round led by digital asset lender JTSA Global. The fundraise follows previous investments by Coinbase Ventures, OKX Ventures, Arrington Capital and others. Alongside the fresh funding, the company rolled out its Atomic OTC desk, promising “instant, trustless cross-chain settlement of large block trades.” The newly deployed service is reminiscent of crosschain atomic swaps offered by THORChain, Chainflip, and more Bitcoin -focused systems such as Liquality and Boltz. What sets Portal to Bitcoin apart is its focus on the Bitcoin-anchored crosschain OTC market for institutions and whales, along with its tech stack. “Portal provides the infrastructure to make Bitcoin the settlement layer for global asset markets, without bridges, custodians, or wrapped assets,” said Chandra Duggirala, founder and CEO of Portal. Portal to Bitcoin team members, from left to right: co-founder and chief technology officer Manoj Duggirala, founder and CEO Chandra Duggirala, and co-founder George Burke. Source: Portal to Bitcoin Continue reading DeFi market overview According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, most of the 100 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization ended the week in the red. The Canton (CC) token fell 18%, marking the week’s biggest decline in the top 100, followed by the Starknet (STRK) token, down 16% on the weekly chart. Total value locked in DeFi. Source: DefiLlama Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education regarding this dynamically advancing space. # Bitcoin # Blockchain # Cryptocurrencies # Altcoins # Federal Reserve # Law # Business # Ethereum # Funding # Bitcoin Price # Technology # Investments # SEC # Bitcoin Regulation # Adoption # United States # Lending # Arthur Hayes # Tokens # Interest Rate # Stablecoin # DeFi # Web3 # Cryptocurrency Investment # Ethereum Price # Regulation # Web3 Decentralization Initiatives Add reaction