Bitcoin looks increasingly like it did in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K?

Nancy Lubale 3 minutes ago Bitcoin looks increasingly like it did in 2022: Can BTC price avoid $68K? Onchain data points to a major Bitcoin price drop in the making, while a bearish technical structure projected a drop to $68,000. Listen 0:00 Market Analysis COINTELEGRAPH IN YOUR SOCIAL FEED Bitcoin ( BTC ) is flashing early signs of a deeper correction, as the latest recovery pauses at $93,000. New analysis shows Bitcoin’s “market structure” increasingly resembles the first quarter of 2022, which marked the beginning of the bear market. Key takeaways: Bitcoin's onchain structure mirrors early 2022, risking a deep bear market if key levels are lost. Bitcoin’s bear flag targets a $68,100 BTC price. Bitcoin onchain data hints at early bear market Bitcoin has dropped toward and found support near its True Market Mean, currently at $81,500 said Onchain data provider Glassnode. The True Market Mean, or the Active-Investor Price, represents the cost basis of all non-dormant coins, excluding miners. Related: Strategy’s ‘unicorn’ technical pattern puts 50% MSTR stock rebound in play “This level often marks the dividing line between a mild bearish phase and a deep bear market,” Glassnode said in its latest Week On-chain report, adding; “Although price has recently stabilized above this threshold, the broader market structure is increasingly echoing the dynamics of Q1 2022.” Bitcoin: True Market Mean. Source: Glassnode The chart above shows that the BTC/USD pair traded above this level between Jan. 22, 2022, and May 5, 2022. When BTC dropped below this level on May 6, the price lost a further 61%, bottoming at $15,500 in November of that year. The resemblance is corroborated by a Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model, which tracks the entry price of the largest coin clusters. Since mid-November, Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile, now trading near $96,100, placing more than 25% of supply underwater. This has created a highly “fragile balance between the risk of top-buyer capitulation and the potential for seller exhaustion to form a bottom,” Glassnode wrote, adding: “The current structure remains highly sensitive to macro shocks until the market can reclaim the 0.85 quantile (~$106.2K) as support.” Bitcoin: Supply quantiles cost basis. Source: Glassnode CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index offers a more granular view after falling sharply since August and dropping below 40 in October. The metric has remained flat throughout November despite short-term price volatility. The latest reading falls within the 0-20 range, deep within bearish conditions, similar to the levels observed in January 2022, as shown in the chart below. Bitcoin: Bull Score Index. Source: CryptoQuant As Cointelegraph reported , Bitcoin’s price action is showing other similarities with the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin’s bear flag targets $69,000 Bitcoin’s latest recovery attempt was rejected by stiff resistance around $93,000 , data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows. This level corresponds to the yearly open and the upper boundary of a bear flag , as shown on the two-day chart below. A break and close below the flag’s lower boundary at $91,000 will validate the bear flag, opening the door for a fresh downtrend toward the measured target of the pattern at $68,150, or the previous all-time highs of 2021. Such a move would bring the total losses to 27%. BTC/USD two-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/ TradingView Momentum indicators, including the relative strength index , or RSI, remain sluggish at 40, suggesting that market conditions still favour the downside. As Cointelegraph reported , the bearish pattern will be invalidated if the bulls push the price above $96,000, supported by a positive Coinbase Premium. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information. # Bitcoin # Cryptocurrencies # Bitcoin Price # Markets # Market Analysis Add reaction