Bitcoin Miners Face A Harsh December: Rising BTC Difficulty, Falling Hashprice
Analysis
Price Impact
MedBitcoin miners face increasing pressure due to rising difficulty and hashprice hovering near break-even levels. this financial strain could force some miners to sell their btc holdings to cover operational costs, creating selling pressure in the market. additionally, potential hardware supply disruptions from a us dhs probe into bitmain add uncertainty.
Trustworthiness
HighThe source explicitly states a strict editorial policy focusing on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality, with content created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed, adhering to the highest standards in reporting and publishing.
Price Direction
BearishThe confluence of rising mining difficulty, hashprice near reported break-even points, and potential hardware supply risks for a critical component (asics) suggests increased financial strain on miners. this could lead to a 'miner capitulation' scenario where some are forced to sell btc to sustain operations or upgrade, adding selling pressure to the market.
Time Effect
LongThe impact of miner financial stress, especially if it leads to capitulation or significant hardware supply chain issues, tends to unfold over weeks or months rather than immediately. difficulty adjustments are continuous, but the broader economic implications for miners will have a sustained effect.
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Reason to trust Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Created by industry experts and meticulously reviewed The highest standards in reporting and publishing How Our News is Made Strict editorial policy that focuses on accuracy, relevance, and impartiality Ad discliamer Morbi pretium leo et nisl aliquam mollis. Quisque arcu lorem, ultricies quis pellentesque nec, ullamcorper eu odio. According to CoinWarz, the next difficulty adjustment is expected at block 927,360, moving the target from 149 trillion to close to 150 trillion. That is a modest rise, but it matters because Bitcoin miners are already working with very thin margins. Hashpower is strong enough to push difficulty up even while returns stay near record lows. Related Reading Bitcoin’s November Slump Could Trigger A 2026 Revival, Analysts Say 1 day ago Hashprice Sits Near Break-Even According to Hashrate Index , hashprice is hovering around $38.3 PH/s per day, a touch up from a recent trough below $35 PH/s on November 21. Reports indicate that $40 PH/s is roughly the break-even level for many operations. When revenue per petahash drifts under that mark, some miners face a hard choice: switch off rigs or keep paying to mine. Average block times have been close to the 10-minute goal, with the network recently averaging about 9.97 minutes, which helped trigger the most recent adjustment that dropped difficulty from 152.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion. The Bitcoin difficulty chart tracks how difficulty has changed over time. Source: CoinWarz Hardware, Politics And Supply Risks Reports have disclosed a US Department of Homeland Security probe into Bitmain , the China-based ASIC maker, over concerns its machines could be accessed remotely. Bitmain is reported to control about 80% of the ASIC market, according to the University of Cambridge. That market concentration leaves the industry vulnerable. If US officials impose restrictions, tariffs, or other limits, miners could face higher hardware costs and slower deliveries. Some equipment orders might be delayed or rerouted, and expansion plans would be tested. BTCUSD trading at $91,771 on the 24-hour chart: TradingView China Unlikely To End Bitcoin Mining Ban Despite Uptick Meanwhile, overseas, a mild uptick in China’s bitcoin mining has led some scholars to urge Beijing to relax its ban so miners can use excess energy, but experts say a formal reversal is unlikely. Related Reading 320 Ether On The Move: Bhutan Ramps Up Its Staking Game 1 day ago According to Hashrate Index, China’s share of global hash rate rose from 13.75% in Q1 2025 to 14% in the current quarter, placing it third behind the US and Russia. Historical data from the Cambridge index shows China’s hash rate fell to zero in July 2021 before unofficial activity pushed it back to 22.29% by September 2021; Cambridge stopped updating its mining map in February 2022. Beijing has tightened rules on crypto in recent years, arguing such activity disrupts financial order and can enable illegal behavior. Experts believe those political and policy concerns make an official lift of the mining ban unlikely, despite the recent rise in activity. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView