The BIG IDEA: Why Money Printing Will Define an Entire Generation of Investors

To investors, I have previously written to this group about the concept of one BIG IDEA . The general premise is that every standout investor gets a single great idea during their lifetime. Their job is to exploit that idea as many times as they can. Buffett bought things for less than they were worth. Icahn agitated companies until they improved. Simons used math to find inefficiencies. The list goes on and on. I believe the BIG IDEA of my generation is that the government will never, ever stop printing money. There are many ways to exploit this fact, but your (and my) job is to capitalize on the incompetence of our politicians and central bankers. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello shows US M2 money supply just hit a new all-time high of $22.3 trillion. As he so eloquently puts it, “death, taxes, and printing money…” Charlie explains the new all-time high was achieved because “the US money supply grew 4.6% over the last year, the biggest year-over-year increase since July 2022.” Now this is obviously a positive tailwind for investors. If you hold assets denominated in dollars, and those dollars keep losing value, then your assets will surge in price. The higher prices go, the wealthier the investor becomes. But there is a national crisis underway for those that don’t own enough assets. Balaji Srinivasan shows “the cost-of-living crisis is really a sovereign debt crisis. You can only print and borrow for so long. It causes problems in the long run. And the long run is here.” In my view, the same way that a generation of investors get one BIG (Investment) IDEA, societies have to navigate one Bad (Policy) Idea per generation. In our current generation, the same trend of money printing is creating the BIG (Investment) IDEA and the Bad (Policy) Idea. That is why there is so much controversy, debate, and chaos. What is good for the top 50% of Americans is destructive to the bottom 50% of Americans. The money that is printed, the wealthier asset owners get and the poorer non-asset owners become. The first principles solution would be to address the root cause of societal issues by halting the printing of money. The problem is that no one, especially not any politicians, are incentivized to do that. It would be a suicide mission for any elected official to strip their constituents of the various benefits from money printing. We should make the hard decision today. Just don’t hold your breath that our leaders will have the stomach for doing it. Have a great day and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. 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