Bitcoin is experiencing a tough four-week losing streak, marked by institutional capitulation and a pullback from recent highs. macro factors, including the potential for a december interest-rate cut by the u.s. fed and upcoming economic data (ppi, retail sales, gdp, pce), are expected to cause 'headline-driven volatility.' the long-term shift towards 'fiscal dominance' over central bank influence also represents a significant paradigm change for asset markets.
The analysis is provided by coindesk, a reputable crypto news source, incorporating insights from multiple analysts (cryptoquant, brn, russell napier) and drawing on current market data and macroeconomic trends.
Despite a 'highly likely' short-term rebound according to cryptoquant, the overall sentiment is bearish due to the four-week losing streak, institutional capitulation, and the unlikelihood of a quick rally back to $100,000. there's significant downside risk if the $80,000 level is lost. while dovish fed remarks could provide some relief, the structural shift to fiscal dominance suggests a different market dynamic than previous bull runs.
The immediate price movements are expected to be driven by upcoming u.s. economic data releases this week and the evolving odds of a fed rate cut. the article highlights 'headline-driven volatility' in the short term. however, the 'institutional capitulation' and shift in macro dynamics (fiscal dominance) have longer-term implications that won't resolve overnight.
Crypto Daybook Americas Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Where Next?: Crypto Daybook Americas Your day-ahead look for Nov. 24, 2025 By Omkar Godbole , Jamie Crawley | Edited by Sheldon Reback Nov 24, 2025, 12:15 p.m. (Unsplash modified by CoinDesk) What to know : You are viewing Crypto Daybook Americas, your morning briefing on what happened in the crypto markets overnight and what's expected during the coming day. Crypto Daybook Americas will kickstart your morning with comprehensive insights. If you're not already subscribed to the email, click here . You won't want to start your day without it. By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The new week isn’t kicking off on the brightest note. Bitcoin BTC $ 86,069.32 is already pulling back from its weekend bounce, slipping down to $86,000 from around $88,000. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) is also feeling the chill, sliding to 2,758 points from its weekend high of 2,816. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . BTC’s been on a tough four-week losing streak, marked by institutional capitulation . What’s next? Sharp sell-offs like this usually shake investor confidence, which doesn’t bounce back overnight. That makes a quick rally back to $100,000 or more by year-end pretty unlikely. You can tell the mood from analysts' comments, which mostly avoid clear directional views. "In the short term, a rebound is highly likely, but if we fall again and lose the $80,000 level, the probability of facing a much tougher period becomes significantly higher," CryptoQuant said in a post on X. A bounce cannot be ruled out because a December interest-rate cut in the U.S. has returned to the table, with traders now assigning a 75% chance of a reduction after dovish remarks by Federal Reserve officials late last week. These odds could climb if this week's U.S. data — producer price index, retail sales, GDP, and PCE — signal cooling inflation and slower growth. "For crypto, the macro delta is simple: easing prints would reduce real yields and likely draw marginal buyers back in; sticky inflation or hawkish commentary would keep risk asset liquidity constrained. Expect headline-driven volatility around these releases," Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email. That said, here is a quick reminder to those expecting Fed-driven booms like 2020-21. The game has changed. As Financial Strategist Russell Napier said, the post-Covid world is characterized by “fiscal dominance/state capitalism,” where governments, not central banks, lead the charge to reduce debt-to-GDP ratios. In this new setup, governments leverage control over commercial banks and policy tools to direct liquidity into growth-driving economic activities that “inflate away” debt. This makes assets that benefit from fiscal spending and store-of-value appeal among the best investments right now. This is a big shift from the pre-Covid, Fed dominance era, when new money flowed first to asset managers, sparking rallies in all corners of the financial markets: the classic Cantillon effect I first explained back in 2019 ! Investors pinning their hopes solely on Fed stimulus for markets might want to rethink their playbook. Stay alert! Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today What to Watch For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ." Crypto Nov. 24: Monad’s public mainnet to start up with native token MON. Nov. 24: Two new spot crypto ETFs — Grayscale Dogecoin Trust ETF (GDOG) and Grayscale XRP Trust ETF (GXRP) — are expected to go live on NYSE Arca. Macro Nothing scheduled. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Nothing scheduled. Token Events For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ." Governance votes and calls GRASS $ 0.3554 to host token holder call at 1 p.m. on the token’s role in its ecosystem and initiatives ahead. Unlocks NIL $ 0.09242 to unlock 4% of its circulating supply worth $10.84 million. NEWT $ 0.1133 to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $6.25 million. Token Launches Monad (MON) to list on Kraken, Gate, Bitrue and Indoax. Sparkle (SSS) to list on Gate. Conferences For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's " Crypto Week Ahead ." Nothing scheduled. Market Movements BTC is up 0.95% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $86,003.98 (24hrs: -0.3%) ETH is up 1.14% at $2,799.37 (24hrs: -0.55%) CoinDesk 20 is up 2% at 2,753.16 (24hrs: +0.12%) Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 25 bps at 2.81% BTC funding rate is at 0.0034% (3.7777% annualized) on Binance DXY is little changed at 100.09 Gold futures are down 0.30% at $4,067.20 Silver futures are down 0.22% at $49.81 Nikkei 225 closed down 2.40% at 48,625.88 Hang Seng closed up 1.97% at 25,716.50 FTSE is unchanged at 9,543.30 Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,510.71 DJIA closed on Friday up 1.08% at 46,245.41 S&P 500 closed up 0.98% at 6,602.99 Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.88% at 22,273.08 S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.85% at 30,160.65 S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.24% at 3,036.63 U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.3 bps at 4.05% E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% at 6,636.50 E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.47% at 24,419.25 E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are unchanged at 46,311.00 Bitcoin Stats BTC Dominance: 59.08% (-0.31%) Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03252 (0.77%) Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,039 EH/s Hashprice (spot): $35.59 Total fees: 2.32 BTC / $200,985 CME Futures Open Interest: 131,785 BTC BTC priced in gold: 21.2 oz. BTC vs gold market cap: 5.77% Technical Analysis Tether gold. (TradingView) The chart shows daily swings in Tether gold's USDT-denominated price. The token, XAUT, has chalked out a triangular consolidation over the past five weeks, marking a pause in the broader bullish trend. The next move depends on the direction in which the triangular consolidation resolves. A bullish breakout would mean resumption of the broader rally, while a downside break would signal a bullish-to-bearish trend change. Crypto Equities Coinbase Global (COIN) closed on Friday at $240.41, (+0.96%), +2.16% at $245.60 in pre-market Circle Internet (CRCL) closed at $71.33, (+6.53%), +0.71% at $71.84 Galaxy Digital (GLXY) closed at $23.42, (-2.37%), +2.95% at $24.11 MARA Holdings (MARA) closed at $10.07, (-1.76%), +1.39% at $10.21 Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed at $12.71, (-0.67%), +2.2% at $12.99 Core Scientific (CORZ) closed at $14.73, (-2.77%), +1.83% at $15 CleanSpark (CLSK) closed at $9.73 (-2.84%), +5.14% at $10.23 CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) closed at $38.04, (-1.91%) Exodus Movement (EXOD) closed at $14.65, (+3.03%) Crypto Treasury Companies Strategy (MSTR): closed at $170.50 (-3.74%), -5.41% at $167.55, +1.07% at $172.32 Semler Scientific (SMLR) closed at $19.03, (+3.36%) SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.52 (+2.37%), +1.58% at $9.67 Upexi Inc (UPXI) closed at $2.52, (+2.43%), +3.17% at $2.60 Lite Strategy (LITS) closed at $1.70 (+0.59%) ETF Flows Spot BTC ETFs Daily net flows: $238.4 million Cumulative net flows: $57.62 billion Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million Spot ETH ETFs Daily net flows: $55.7 million Cumulative net flows: $12.65 billion Total ETH holdings ~6.13 million Source: Farside Investors While You Were Sleeping Bitcoin Mining in China Rebounds, Defying 2021 Ban (Reuters): Miners are quietly exploiting surplus power in China’s energy-rich provinces, reviving operations in defiance of official policy as weak enforcement and higher bitcoin prices create profit incentives. Gold Steadies as Market Weighs Chance of Another Fed Rate Cut (Bloomberg): Gold has traded sideways since reaching a record $4,380 per ounce on Oct. 20, though it’s still up 55% in 2025. Strategist Ahmad Assiri sees limited movement until Fed policy becomes clearer. Crypto Daybook Americas More For You Protocol Research: GoPlus Security By CoinDesk Research Nov 14, 2025 Commissioned by GoPlus What to know : As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M. GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month. Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B. View Full Report More For You The Canary in the Coalmine: Crypto Daybook Americas By Omkar Godbole , Jamie Crawley | Edited by Sheldon Reback Nov 21, 2025 Your day-ahead look for Nov. 21, 2025 What to know : You are viewing Crypto Daybook Americas, your morning briefing on what happened in the crypto markets overnight and what's expected during the coming day. Crypto Daybook Americas will kickstart your morning with comprehensive insights. If you're not already subscribed to the email, click here . You won't want to start your day without it. 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