Fed December Rate Cut Odds Collapse to 30%
Analysis
Price Impact
HighThe significant decrease in the probability of a fed rate cut signals a tighter monetary policy environment for longer. higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of risk assets like cryptocurrencies and can increase the cost of capital for businesses and investors.
Trustworthiness
HighInformation sourced from cme's fedwatch tool, which is a highly credible and widely used indicator for federal reserve rate expectations, combined with official statements regarding data blackouts.
Price Direction
BearishA sustained period of higher interest rates makes traditional safe-haven assets more attractive and reduces liquidity in the market, putting downward pressure on speculative assets like bitcoin. the lack of crucial economic data (jobs report) also adds to market uncertainty.
Time Effect
LongThe shift in fed rate cut expectations represents a change in the mid-to-long-term monetary policy outlook, which will likely influence capital allocation and investor sentiment over an extended period.
Original Article:
Article Content:
Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Fed December Rate Cut Odds Collapse to 30% The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has decreased significantly, now standing at 30%. By Omkar Godbole , AI Boost Nov 20, 2025, 7:25 a.m. FastNews (CoinDesk) What to know : The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has decreased significantly, now standing at 30%. The Labor Department will not release October jobs data due to the government shutdown, complicating policy decisions. Minutes from the October Fed meeting reveal divisions among policymakers on whether to pause or cut rates. The probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5%-3.75% has fallen to 30%, down from 50% both a day and a week ago, and sharply from 98% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool . The conviction has evaporated amid concerns over a prolonged data blackout, making it increasingly difficult for policymakers to make an informed decision. On Wednesday, the Labor Department confirmed that it wouldn't release the jobs data for October, citing the record-length the recently concluded government shutdown. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . At the same time, minutes of the October Fed meeting released Wednesday showed deep fissures over whether to pause or cut rates. Bitcoin changed hands at $91,700 at press time, up 0.8% on a 24-hour basis. Federal Reserve Interest rate AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards . For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy . More For You Protocol Research: GoPlus Security By CoinDesk Research Nov 14, 2025 Commissioned by GoPlus What to know : As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M. GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month. Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B. View Full Report More For You Privacy-Focused Aztec Network's Ignition Chain Lights Up on Ethereum By Omkar Godbole , AI Boost | Edited by Sam Reynolds 41 minutes ago Aztec Network launched its Ignition Chain, becoming the first fully decentralized Layer 2 protocol on Ethereum's mainnet. What to know : Aztec Network launched its Ignition Chain, becoming the first fully decentralized Layer 2 protocol on Ethereum's mainnet. The Ignition Chain uses zero-knowledge proofs to provide private and scalable blockchain transactions, enhancing DeFi applications. Read full story Latest Crypto News Privacy-Focused Aztec Network's Ignition Chain Lights Up on Ethereum 41 minutes ago India's Debt-Backed ARC Token Eyes Tentative Q1 2026 Debut, Sources Say 1 hour ago Dogecoin Hits Multi-Month Lows as Exchange Flows Turn Bullish for First Time in 6 Months 1 hour ago XRP Slumps as $2.15 Level Collapses, Bearish Structure Deepens 1 hour ago Asia Morning Briefing: Market Turns Defensive as Bitcoin Loses Its Bid 5 hours ago Stablecoin Spending Goes Mainstream With Opera MiniPay’s LatAm Integration 7 hours ago Top Stories Asia Morning Briefing: Market Turns Defensive as Bitcoin Loses Its Bid 5 hours ago Nvidia Earnings Beat, Strong Outlook Calm Jittery Markets; Bitcoin Re-Takes $90K 9 hours ago Fed Rate Cut Odds Plunge Further on Jobs Data Delays 11 hours ago DeFi Giant Spark Shelves Crypto App Plans to Focus on Institutional Infrastructure 9 hours ago Trump's Pick to Run CFTC, Selig, Tells Senators Crypto a 'Critical Mission' at Agency 10 hours ago Crypto Leverage Hits Record High in Q3 as DeFi Dominance Reshapes Market Structure: Galaxy 12 hours ago