Fed Rate Cut Odds Plunge Further on Jobs Data Delays

Markets Share Share this article Copy link X icon X (Twitter) LinkedIn Facebook Email Fed Rate Cut Odds Plunge Further on Jobs Data Delays Traders slash chances of a December cut to 33% as the Fed loses a key data point ahead of its final 2025 meeting. By Helene Braun | Edited by Stephen Alpher Nov 19, 2025, 8:04 p.m. What to know : The BLS said that the October employment report will scrapped due to the government shutdown and the November jobs numbers won't be released until after the Fed's December meeting. The odds of a December Fed rate cut — nearly 100% as recently as three weeks ago — tumbled further to just 33%. U.S. stocks gave up large early gains and crypto prices fell further as the news hit. Markets are further dialing back expectations for another interest rate cut this year after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it won’t release jobs data for October and the November report will be delayed until after the Federal Reserve's December. Traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) now see just a 33% chance that the Federal Reserve cuts rates at its final policy meeting of 2025, down from 50% just a day earlier. Recall that less than one month ago, the chances of a December rate cut were more or less 100%. Following the Fed's late October meeting though, Chairman Jerome Powell shocked markets by pouring cold water on ideas. STORY CONTINUES BELOW Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . Over the ensuing weeks, speeches and interviews with Fed members revealed just how deep the divisions were at the central bank for further ease of monetary policy, including this afternoon's release of the minutes of that October meeting. There are surely myriad reasons for the plunge in crypto prices over the past few weeks, but the reversal in expectations about future monetary ease ranks high. Bitcoin stood at $110,000 just ahead of Powell's late October comments and at $89,000 currently. The carnage in crypto-related stocks has been even worse, with previously red-hot names like stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) lower by 10% on Wednesday and nearly 50% over the past month. Bitcoin treasury company Strategy is also down 10% today and almost 40% over the past month. Today's news about the jobs reports means Fed policymakers will be without one of their most important inputs at the December meeting. The Fed has long based its decisions on real-time labor and inflation data. Without any fresh numbers showing a material slowdown in employment, it's hard to see the hawks reversing to support another rate cut this year. President Donald Trump added to the noise this week, saying at an investment forum Wednesday that he’d already have fired Jerome Powell if not for Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urging to let the Fed chair remain on the job until his term ends in 2026. “The only thing Scott is blowing it on is the Fed, because the Fed, the rates are too high, Scott,” Trump said. “And if you don’t get it fixed fast, I’m going to fire your ass.” There will be one national employment report, though, between now and the Fed's December meeting. That's the September number and it's due to be released Thursday morning. Given the "oldness" of the data, it's hard to imagine it having an effect on either the dovish or hawkish central bank members. Federal Reserve More For You Protocol Research: GoPlus Security By CoinDesk Research Nov 14, 2025 Commissioned by GoPlus What to know : As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M. GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month. Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B. View Full Report More For You Crypto Leverage Hits Record High in Q3 as DeFi Dominance Reshapes Market Structure: Galaxy By Oliver Knight , AI Boost | Edited by Stephen Alpher 50 minutes ago Onchain lending drove crypto-collateralized debt to a new peak in last quarter, but the leverage underpinning the market is now better collateralized than during the previous cycle. What to know : Onchain lending accounts for 66.9% of all crypto-collateralized borrowing, with DeFi loans hitting a record $41 billion, boosted by incentives, new collateral types and rapid growth on emerging chains like Plasma, according to a report from Galaxy Digital. Centralized lenders grew outstanding loans 37% to $24.4 billion, but with far tighter collateral requirements; Tether controls nearly 60% of tracked CeFi lending. The $19 billion Oct. 10 liquidation cascade was the largest in history, but Galaxy says it reflected exchange risk systems, not a buildup of systemic credit risk. 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