Indicators Show XRP's Bull Run May Be Finished; $3 is the Level For Bulls to Beat: Technical Analysis

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By Omkar Godbole Mar 25, 2025, 11:21 a.m. UTC XRP's momentum indicators have taken a turn for the worse. (Aperture/Pixabay) What to know : XRP surged over 11% to $2.59 last Wednesday following the SEC news. Since then, the follow through has been weak, with prices rangebound between $2.30-$2.50. A bullish-to-bearish shift in momentum is indicated by a new red bar in XRP's three-line break chart, and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram points to strengthening of downside momentum. Bollinger Bands mimic a pattern that has historically marked bull market peaks and subsequent downturns. "You're not bullish enough!" an XRP enthusiast exclaimed on X last week after Ripple, which utilizes the token for cross-border transactions, announced that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has dropped its case against them. Many others share this excitement, and understandably so, as the conclusion of this long-standing legal battle has lifted a weight that hindered XRP's performance compared to the broader market during the 2021 bull run. Plus, there is XRP ETF hype and hopes that the token could become a part of the U.S. strategic reserve. Story continues Don't miss another story. Subscribe to the Crypto for Advisors Newsletter today . See all newsletters Sign me up By signing up, you will receive emails about CoinDesk products and you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy . That said, the recent price action does not reflect the above optimism, with key momentum indicators flashing a major bearish shift in trend, warning of a notable price slide ahead. XRP surged over 11% to $2.59 last Wednesday, cheering the SEC news. Since then, the follow through has been anything but bullish with prices rangebound between $2.30-$2.50, despite optimism that expected reciprocal trade tariffs from President Donald Trump on April 2 could be more measured than initially expected. Three-line break chart The first indicator signaling bearish trend reversal is the three-line break chart, which focuses only on price movements while filtering out short-term noise, helping identify trend changes as suggested by the market and not arbitrary/discretionary trading rules. The chart consists of vertical blocks called lines or bars (green and red). A bull reversal happens when a green bar occurs with prices moving higher than the highest point of the last three red bars. On the contrary, a bearish shift is represented by the emergence of a new red bar that goes beyond the lowest point of the previous three green bars. In XRP's case, a new red bar occurred early this month in the weekly time frame and has held intact following the SEC news. The "weekly" aspect means this chart aggregates price information over a week. XRP's three-line break chart, weekly. (TradingView/CoinDesk) The new red bar indicates a bullish-to-bearish shift in momentum. Similar patterns characterized the beginnings of prolonged bear markets in 2021 and early 2018. MACD The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, used to gauge trend strength and trend changes, is producing deeper bars below the zero line on the weekly chart. It's a sign of the strengthening of the downside momentum. The same indicator flipped positive in November, after which prices surged from $1 to above $3. The 5- and 10-week simple moving averages (SMAs) have crossed bearish as well, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the downside. XRP's weekly candlesticks chart with the MACD. (CoinDesk/TradingView) Bollinger Bands The Bollinger bands – volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below XRP's 20-week SMA – have widened in response to the sharp price rally in late 2024 and early this year. Historically, prices have tended to move lower following the sharp widening of the Bollinger bands, as observed after mid-2021 and early 2018. XRP's weekly chart with Bollinger bands. (CoinDesk/TradingView) When bullish? A firm move of $3, the high registered on March 2, would invalidate the bearish setup, negating the lower highs pattern to suggest a renewed bullish technical outlook. Some analysts expect XRP to reach as high as $10 by the end of this decade. XRP's daily chart. (TradingView/CoinDesk) XRP Technical Analysis Omkar Godbole Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team based in Mumbai, holds a masters degree in Finance and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) member. Omkar previously worked at FXStreet, writing research on currency markets and as fundamental analyst at currency and commodities desk at Mumbai-based brokerage houses. Omkar holds small amounts of bitcoin, ether, BitTorrent, tron and dot. X icon About About Us Masthead Careers CoinDesk News Crypto API Documentation Contact Contact Us Accessibility Advertise Sitemap System Status DISCLOSURE & POLICES CoinDesk is an award-winning media outlet that covers the cryptocurrency industry. Its journalists abide by a strict set of editorial policies . CoinDesk has adopted a set of principles aimed at ensuring the integrity, editorial independence and freedom from bias of its publications. CoinDesk is part of the Bullish group, which owns and invests in digital asset businesses and digital assets. CoinDesk employees, including journalists, may receive Bullish group equity-based compensation. Bullish was incubated by technology investor Block.one. 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