US Bitcoin reserve odds skyrocket on betting markets
Analysis
Price Impact
HighThe potential creation of a us bitcoin reserve, and possibly a broader crypto reserve, is a monumental event that would legitimize cryptocurrencies on a national scale. this would likely trigger massive inflows into the mentioned cryptos.
Trustworthiness
MedWhile the odds are increasing on betting markets, the likelihood of this actually happening depends on various factors, including political will and potential opposition. trump's past statements show some support but there is no guarantee he will follow through.
Price Direction
BullishA us government endorsement and purchase of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies would dramatically increase demand, potentially driving prices significantly higher.
Time Effect
LongThe impact would likely be felt gradually, with the most significant price movements occurring as the reserve is established and expanded over time. the proposed 5-year timeframe of the bitcoin act plays a part in this.
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Alex O’Donnell 5 minutes ago US Bitcoin reserve odds skyrocket on betting markets Kalshi bettors put the odds of Trump creating a Bitcoin reserve in 2026 at roughly 70%. 66 Total views Listen to article 0:00 News COINTELEGRAPH IN YOUR SOCIAL FEED Follow our Subscribe on The odds of US President-elect Donald Trump establishing a strategic Bitcoin ( BTC ) reserve after taking office on Jan. 20 are soaring, at least on betting markets Kalshi and Polymarket. Bettors on Kalshi, a US derivatives exchange, set the probability of Trump creating a US BTC reserve in 2026 at nearly 70%. Users on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction platform, predict a 42% chance Trump will do so in his first 100 days. Odds on both betting platforms are up roughly 20% from early January lows, the data shows. Bettors also expect BTC and Ether ( ETH ) to hit record highs in 2025 . Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes. Polymarket and Kalshi rose to prominence in the runup to the US elections in November, with upward of $4 billion in trading volume tied to the US presidential race alone. They proved to be more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate. Trump addressed the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July, promising to make the US a global crypto capital. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Related: Trump plans executive order making crypto a national priority: Report Big promises In July, Trump pledged to create “a strategic national Bitcoin reserve” during the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, adding that his administration would never sell off the US government’s Bitcoin holdings. In November, US Senator Cynthia Lummis, long known as the “Crypto Queen” of Capitol Hill, proposed the BITCOIN Act , which would establish a US Bitcoin reserve by requiring the Treasury Department to buy 1 million BTC over 5 years. Trump has doubled down on his pro-crypto rhetoric in recent weeks, raising hopes in the industry that the president-elect will deliver on his promises. On Jan. 16, the New York Post reported that Trump is receptive to expanding a possible reserve to include a broader basket of cryptocurrencies, including USD Coin ( USDC ), Solana ( SOL ) and XRP ( XRP ). Trump also reportedly plans to sign an executive order designating crypto as a national priority that could come as soon as he reenters office on Jan. 20. Establishing a BTC reserve in the US would accelerate Bitcoin’s adoption even more than 2024’s exchange-traded fund (ETF) launches, cryptocurrency researcher CoinShares said in a Jan. 10 blog post . “We believe that the enactment of the Bitcoin Act in the United States would have a more profound long-term impact on Bitcoin than the launch of ETFs,” CoinShares said. Magazine: Crypto has 4 years to grow so big ‘no one can shut it down’ — Kain Warwick, Infinex # Bitcoin # Blockchain # Altcoin # Business # Betting # Ethereum # Bitcoin Price # Adoption # Donald Trump # Regulation # US Elections 2024 Add reaction